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L_Stephens
Posted: Thursday, February 19, 2009 9:39:03 PM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 7/6/2008
Posts: 437
Secret long range plan....not secret anymore:

I would like input into what you as an individual player would like to see stats wise.  For yourself and for courses.  We know we have the PDGA individual ratings and we have course SSA's...but what kind of stats would you yourself like to know going into a competition?

examples...a persons Home and Away ratings.  Course SSA's for spring, summer, fall, winter.  Your rating variations from pitch n putt courses to higher SSA courses.  Your wooded to open variations in ratings.  Your ratings for multiday tournaments versus single day tournaments.  Saturday tournaments versus Sunday tournaments.  Course SSA's or personal ratings when the TD reported rain or high winds. 

I have a ton of data and the PDGA updates it every week.  I know some of you could care less and don't understand why others would care....but others of you would lose yourself in the data and call upon the website before each out of town trip.

You can PM me your ideas if you don't want others to scrutinize your ideas publicly.  I for one could care less what the World is Flat'rs have to say before I set sail into the uncharted horizon.
pcaldwell
Posted: Thursday, February 19, 2009 9:48:04 PM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 2/28/2003
Posts: 285
Personally I think it would be great to see ratings applied to our CCS. The PDGA wouldn't like to see non-members receive the benefit of seeing their ratings, but our local players who are not PDGA members would. Plus, it let us see our 'home course' ratings. It would be neat to see if players really play the local courses much better than out of town courses. I would assume the most players would have a higher CCS rating than their PDGA rating, not just because of familiarity with the course (the other players are also familiar with the course at CC's), but because of the more relaxed nature of the CCS vs. a PDGA event.
L_Stephens
Posted: Thursday, February 19, 2009 10:20:13 PM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 7/6/2008
Posts: 437
There was discussion early last year amongst those at the PDGA of rating local events...such as our CCS...there was talk of having sanctioned mini's without the PDGA fee....but ofcourse that discussion broke down when they couldn't find any benefit to the PDGA when money wasn't involved. I believe I could accurately rate each persons performance on a CCS event using the PDGA formula...since I will have adequate propagators since many of us have more than 8 rated rounds in the past year...and we can draw off the SSA's of courses like Banklick, Idlewild, Mt Airy from events held there in sanctioned tournaments.

I'll get started with a CCS from last year...probably Idlewild..and see what I can do on three Mountain Dew's and a bag of Oreo Double Stuffs.
NEngle
Posted: Thursday, February 19, 2009 10:45:22 PM

Rank: Elite Veteran

Joined: 11/18/2003
Posts: 944
Location: Fairfield, OH
Lee, the world is hollow.
L_Stephens
Posted: Thursday, February 19, 2009 11:54:25 PM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 7/6/2008
Posts: 437
Existence is hollow...the world is full of joy.
L_Stephens
Posted: Friday, February 20, 2009 3:15:19 PM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 7/6/2008
Posts: 437
Below is a calculation of the 2008 Idlewild CCS.  Where no rating on a PDGA rating exist on a person...it means I couldn't quickly find a PDGA number, you aren't a current member, you had too similiar of a name to someone else....or like reason.   If you see any mistakes with names/PDGA ratings or what not...just let me know and I'll update the DB and recalculate instantly.

***NOTE*** The ratings are calculated off your ratings as of TODAY...I have no crystal ball and can't calculate off what your rating was the day you shot this round...so I did as the PDGA does...they rate your rounds off your PDGA rating the day of the calculation...and not the day of the tournament...no matter when the paper work for the flying pig is turned in. laugh

Division Name PDGA # PDGA Rating Round 1 Round Rating Round 2 Round Rating Round 1 Rating +/- Round 2 Rating +/- Total Rating +/- Avg  
Advanced Hollingshead, Dan 29598 947 65 992.16 68 1006.02 45.16 59.02 52.09  

Elam, J.P. 35860 905 68 971.15 74 970.86 66.15 65.86 66  

Eyerman, Alex  
69 964.14 79 941.56        

Fuhrman, Cyrus 30655
69 964.14 80 935.7        

Foster, Russell 34596 952 71 950.13 78 947.42 -1.87 -4.58 -3.22  

Fowler, Kris 32926 896 72 943.13 79 941.56 47.13 45.56 46.34  

Ledford, Lynn     74 929.12 79 941.56     0  

Harrod, Chad 33128 923 73 936.13 81 929.84 13.13 6.84 9.98  

Kemner, Mike 30555 914 78 901.1 77 953.28 -12.9 39.28 13.19  

Thompson, Gary 21919 901 76 915.11 79 941.56 14.11 40.56 27.34  

Mayer, J.P. 29362 915 73 936.13 83 918.11 21.13 3.11 12.12  

Madden, Jeff 35326 922 73 936.13 84 912.25 14.13 -9.75 2.19  

Rott, Joe 21816 892 77 908.11 81 929.84 16.11 37.84 26.97  

Stephens, Lee 33235 877 75 922.12 83 918.11 45.12 41.11 43.12  

Vincent, Tony  
73 936.13 85 906.39        

Lutz, Dave 35999 892 75 922.12 86 900.53 30.12 8.53 19.33  

Javins, Joe 32768 888 81 880.09 84 912.25 -7.91 24.25 8.17  

Combs, Jason 35266 896 85 852.07 93 859.51 -43.93 -36.49 -40.21  
Advanced Grandmaster Frazer, David 21771 907 73 936.13 92 865.37 29.13 -41.63 -6.25  

Lohman, Don 15682 892 80 887.1 89 882.95 -4.9 -9.05 -6.98  

Multhopp, Hans 10074 856 86 845.07 86 900.53 -10.93 44.53 16.8  

Clore, Alan 24038 856 86 845.07 92 865.37 -10.93 9.37 -0.78  
Advanced Masters Donathon, Ken 27828 895 79 894.1 80 935.7 -0.9 40.7 19.9  

Guy, Doug 33170
73 936.13 88 888.81     0  

Pettigrew, Gary 24376 850 79 894.1 89 882.95 44.1 32.95 38.53  

Angel, Rod 25780 850 81 880.09 94 853.65 30.09 3.65 16.87  
Advanced Women Frazer, Michelle 24356 897 75 922.12 81 929.84 25.12 32.84 28.98  

Cox, Rebecca 32917 819 77 908.11 92 865.37 89.11 46.37 67.74  

Frazer, Rebecca 27869 885 84 859.08 85 906.39 -25.92 21.39 -2.26  

Farrell, Karen 31738 849 82 873.09 92 865.37 24.09 16.37 20.23  

Messina, Tara  
107 673.09 102 806.77        
Masters Eades, Jeff 9061 963 64 999.16 73 976.72 36.16 13.72 24.94  

Johnston, Rob  
69 964.14 72 982.58        

Herbert, Bob 6003 972 65 992.16 77 953.28 20.16 -18.72 0.72  
Novice Moe, Thomas 34750 892 74 929.12 83 918.11 37.12 26.11 31.62  

Montgomery, Jeremy 31735 843 84 859.08 77 953.28 16.08 110.28 63.18  

Schulman, Will 19135 735 82 873.09 80 935.7 138.09 200.7 169.4  

Johns, Dennis 36002 878 75 922.12 88 888.81 44.12 10.81 27.46  

Barnett, Brady  
78 901.1 85 906.39        

Kursim, Tony 34733 906 79 894.1 86 900.53 -11.9 -5.47 -8.68  

Stricker, Gerry 38050
79 894.1 87 894.67        

Gales, Gabe  
84 859.08 87 894.67        

Allphin, Abner 34405 869 85 852.07 87 894.67 -16.93 25.67 4.37  

Wayson, Tim  
88 831.06 85 906.39        

Poynter, Casey  
82 873.09 92 865.37        

Worley, Jeff  
88 831.06 88 888.81        

Farina, Tyson 34296 816 87 838.07 91 871.23 22.07 55.23 38.65  

Stupak, Jonathon 31739 780 85 852.07 96 841.93 72.07 61.93 67  

Westerbeck, Don  
90 817.05 94 853.65        

Vincent, Kevin  
84 859.08 105 789.19        

Javins, James 34986 792 89 824.06 104 795.05 32.06 3.05 17.56  

Scott, Mike 32218 628 117 602.59 121 695.43 -25.41 67.43 21.01  

Marlar, Will  
94 788.85 DNF          
Novice Women Hollingshead, Alex 30544 793 88 831.06 100 818.49 38.06 25.49 31.78  

Mamari, Angie 35158 729 98 760.65 102 806.77 31.65 77.77 54.71  

Burress, Kendra 31734 631 102 708.34 125 671.99 77.34 40.99 59.17  
Open Cox, David 6582 1001 61 1020.18 67 1011.88 19.18 10.88 15.03  

Whitt, Scotty 9618
63 1006.16 73 976.72        

Vandemark, Jeff 26326 974 62 1013.17 75 965 39.17 -9 15.09  

Miller, Drew 21071 958 69 964.14 70 994.3 6.14 36.3 21.22  

Mahl, Steve 9536
67 978.15 72 982.58        

Caldwell, Pete 9903 992 67 978.15 74 970.86 -13.85 -21.14 -17.49  

Ferrara, Jim 31737 970 71 950.13 72 982.58 -19.87 12.58 -3.64  

Long, Nick 24469 963 68 971.15 79 941.56 8.15 -21.44 -6.65  

Hurley, Colin 27776 951 73 936.13 77 953.28 -14.87 2.28 -6.3  

Singer, Ben 25180 965 76 915.11 75 965 -49.89 0 -24.94  
Open Grandmaster Day, Mike 22271 936 71 950.13 76 959.14 14.13 23.14 18.64  

Gambrell, Fishnet Dave 13111
71 950.13 83 918.11        

Marlow, David A. 9297 917 69 964.14 87 894.67 47.14 -22.33 12.41  

Toelke, Russ 3320 919 83 866.08 DNF   -52.92 0 -26.46  
Open Women Frazer, Nicole 24355 937 72 943.13 79 941.56 6.13 4.56 5.34  

Shooner, Liz 21732 909 81 880.09 80 935.7 -28.91 26.7 -1.11  

Frazer, Sandra 24354 891 79 894.1 88 888.81 3.1 -2.19 0.46  
                       
  Averages   908.47 78.11 899.3 84.89 907.05 16.8 23.66 20.01  
                       
                       

L_Stephens
Posted: Friday, February 20, 2009 3:20:39 PM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 7/6/2008
Posts: 437

SSA from the shorts: 63.88
SSA from the Longs: 69.03

**Note** Dan, Fred, Whomever....I would like to get past score cards for any tournament at Idlewild to do a Hole SSA and see if our hole Pars are in line with what we have on the signs.
rangel
Posted: Friday, February 20, 2009 9:01:24 PM

Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/11/2004
Posts: 136
Location: NKY
I don't know big guy.....two rounds over my PDGA rating at Idlewild. Looks pretty generous to me. I don't get there very often. I think it is interesting that the tourney average (ratings) are very close to 900. There's a number I haven't seen before. I wonder if that holds over the long term. Try either a big or a nasty weather CCS next time you find some Mt. Dew.
zac
Posted: Saturday, February 21, 2009 11:50:02 AM
Rank: Regular

Joined: 6/18/2008
Posts: 63
a large majority of these people are shown shooting well above their rating. i know this is common among ams, i wonder if these #s are generous.?

the stat that im always interested in is a bit complicated. but ill try to explain it.

what would be the average +/- that a player would shoot in realation to their rating, depending on their division.

what i mean is, if someone plays am3, will they , on average, shoot above below or at their rating, same for each division. my inclination is that on average the differential will bellcurve with am2 being in the peak of, score vs rating difference. provably the pros will be the most accurate, the masters and the am4 being accurate or below their rating, am3 and some of am1 being somewhat above their rating, and am2 and the rest of am1 being significantly above their rating. i dont know if that made any sense, but i tried.
L_Stephens
Posted: Saturday, February 21, 2009 4:32:01 PM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 7/6/2008
Posts: 437
Zac...first off let me say that I did forewarn in the opening paragraph that these ratings will be inflated BECAUSE...we are using each of the propagators rating as they are TODAY...not what they were the day this tournament was...so most players have gone thru two PDGA ratings updates since then. Same with The Flying Pig Open...since the TD report was very late getting in...or may I say the check....we went thru a ratings update...then...later..when the Pig was calculated..the PDGA rated the rounds based on the player ratings THAT DAY...you don't go back and try to figure out what the player was rated at the time the tournament is shot..you rate a player off what their ratings were the day the tournament gets processed....in essence..if the TD shot a smoking hot round..you could cheat..and purposely delay the TD report until the end of the year and get a much higher score....if you are banking on almost everyone's player rating shooting up before your TD report is published. I shot a mediocre round in May..that didn't get processed until this latest update..and my round ratings jumped about 50 points....magically...because of the delay in the posting.

Second...if you want to know a +/- by division...well that is simple enough...I'll post here later...maybe tomorrow after I work tonight from 7pm to 7am..a break down of Idlewild +/- by division....Presently I'm doing a ratings for the Mt Airy CCS because it was wet and sloppy and Rod asked for a comparison of wet and sloppy versus nice and pleasant. I fully intend to rate all the 2008 CCS tournaments and post the data for everyone here. The earlier tournaments will have inflated averages and it will get more real world accurate as I calculate for the later tournaments. Then...as we head into 2009 I can do CCS Player ratings the day the results are posted.

Calculating for Idlewild was difficult and time consuming...and took many hours of figuring things out...the time for Mt. Airy has so far been about an hour and I'm finishing them up now....when I post these into a real database..and build a PHP page to generate all this stuff magically for me...a new tournament would take mere minutes to calculate all this. In essence..I could build a page that could both post the normal results to the site here...and generate all the stats at the same time. I'll most likely be having a nerd gathering at a future tournament with Dan and the boys to see what we can work out.
L_Stephens
Posted: Saturday, February 21, 2009 5:09:44 PM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 7/6/2008
Posts: 437
Below is a stats run for the Mt. Airy CCS of 2008.  The course SSA for round 1 was 56.13 and round 2 was 56.67...probably 2 full points above normal SSA due to the fact of the bad weather...sloppy and muddy.  Normally when you play a course twice in the same day...the PDGA will average the rounds and if you shoot a 64 the first round..you would get the same rating for the 64 in the second round...HOWEVER...since it was noted that Round 2 changed the tee on Hole 18 due to muddy conditions..I calculated each round seperately.

REMEMBER...these ratings are slightly inflated due to calculating them based off PDGA ratings after two updates....and not using player ratings on the day the tournament was shot.  Another note...the 914.92 average player rating at the bottom of the page is NOT all players..but only those used in the propagation for the stats.  Any player below 800 and any player above 1050...yea...nobody....were dropped from consideration as a propagator.

Division Name PDGA # PDGA Rating Round 1 Round Rating Round 2 Round Rating Round 1 Rating +/- Round 2 Rating +/- Total Rating +/- Avg
Advanced Estenfelder, Mark 13425 1004 62 948.79 54 1022.97 -55.21 18.97 -18.12
  Foster, Russell 34596   60 966.24 60 971.33      
  Harrod, Chad 33128 923 61 957.52 63 945.51 34.52 22.51 28.51
  Fuhrman, Cyrus 30655   65 922.61 60 971.33      
  Hollingshead, Dan 29598 947 64 931.34 62 954.12 -15.66 7.12 -4.27
  Eyerman, Alex     67 905.16 60 971.33      
  Jones, Adam 27655 919 62 948.79 65 928.3 29.79 9.3 19.54
  Fischer, Joe 30379   64 931.34 64 936.9      
  Ledford, Lynn     65 922.61 63 945.33      
  Fowler, Kris 32926 896 67 905.16 62 954.12 9.16 58.12 33.64
  Vincent, Tony     67 905.16 62 954.12      
  Bradshaw, Brandon     66 913.89 66 919.69      
  Rott, Joe 21816 892 66 913.89 66 919.69 21.89 27.69 24.79
  Barras, Patrick 17370 898 65 922.61 67 911.08 24.61 13.08 18.85
  Hollingshead, Dave     66 913.89 67 911.08      
  Elam, J.P. 35860 905 66 913.89 68 902.48 8.89 -2.52 3.18
  Kemp, Barret     66 913.89 69 893.87      
  Spencer, Steve 29823   66 913.89 69 893.87      
  Pfeffer, Chris     63 940.06 76 833.62      
  Kemner, Mike 30555   66 913.89 DNF        
  Lutz, Dave 35999 892 69 887.71 DNF   -4.29 0 -2.14
  Kneisel, Chris     71 870.26 DNF        
Advanced Grandmaster Frazer, David 21771 907 64 931.34 65 928.3 24.34 21.3 22.82
  Lohman, Don 15682 892 67 905.16 69 893.87 13.16 1.87 7.51
  Multhopp, Hans 10074 856 72 861.53 71 876.65 5.53 20.65 13.09
  Artist, Ken 15686   71 870.26 73 859.44      
  Clore, Alan 24038 856 79 800.44 76 833.62 -55.56 -22.38 -38.97
  Webb, Chuck     82 774.25 77 825.01      
Advanced Masters Guy, Doug 33170   67 905.16 68 902.48      
  Donathon, Ken 27828 895 66 913.89 71 876.65 18.89 -18.35 0.27
  Pettigrew, Gary 24376 850 69 887.71 70 885.26 37.71 35.26 36.48
  Rucker, James 15363 887 70 878.98 73 859.44 -8.02 -27.56 -17.79
Advanced Women Frazer, Michelle 24356 897 70 878.98 69 893.87 -18.02 -3.13 -10.58
  Frazer, Rebecca 27869 885 69 887.71 71 876.65 2.71 -8.35 -2.82
Masters Eades, Jeff 9061 963 53 1027.33 58 988.54 64.33 25.54 44.94
  Johnston, Rob     61 957.52 59 979.94      
  Orlando, Steve 2753 959 66 913.89 65 928.3 -45.11 -30.7 -37.91
Novice Madden, Jeff 35326 922 57 992.42 61 962.72 70.42 40.72 55.57
  Kursim, Tony 34733 906 67 905.16 61 962.72 -0.84 56.72 27.94
  Anderson, Brad 29848 892 69 887.71 64 936.9 -4.29 44.9 20.3
  Doench, Lou     68 896.43 68 902.48      
  Simpson, Eric 34683 878 64 931.34 75 842.23 53.34 -35.77 8.78
  Westerbeck, Don     72 861.53 71 876.65      
  Montgomery, Jeremy 31735 843 76 826.62 71 876.65 -16.38 33.65 8.64
  Allphin, Abner 34405 869 75 835.35 73 859.44 -33.65 -9.56 -21.61
  Hartoin, Brad     77 817.89 74 850.84      
  Stupak, Jonathon 31739 780 86 739.33 78 816.4 -40.67 36.4 -2.13
  Schultz, Jeremy     84 756.79 88 730.3      
  Ultsch, Bob     89 713.14 88 730.3      
  Ultsch, Chris     102 599.65 92 695.86      
Novice Women Hollingshead, Alex 30544 793 81 782.98 82 781.96 -10.02 -11.04 -10.53
  Burress, Kendra 31734 631 92 686.95 99 635.59 55.95 4.59 30.27
  Ultsch, Heather     125 398.86 125 411.73      
Open Vandemark, Jeff 26326 974 53 1027.33 58 988.54 53.33 14.54 33.94
  Caldwell, Pete 9903 992 54 1018.6 57 997.15 26.6 5.15 15.88
  Finnegan, John 15450   60 966.24 55 1014.36      
  Singer, Ben 25180 965 57 992.42 58 988.54 27.42 23.54 25.48
  Brown, Jason     57 992.42 60 971.33      
  Ferrara, Jim 31737 970 57 992.42 60 971.33 22.42 1.33 11.88
  Long, Nick 24469 963 59 974.97 59 979.94 11.97 16.94 14.45
  Mahl, Steve 9536   64 931.34 57 997.15      
  Shooner, Ben 22033   59 974.97 63 945.33      
  Williams, Holly 23789 943 63 940.06 64 936.9 -2.94 -6.1 -4.52
  Whitt, Scotty 9618   65 922.61 62 954.12      
  Engle, Nick 23468 937 66 913.89 62 954.12 -23.11 17.12 -3
  Ard, Brian     56 1001.15 73 859.44      
Open Grandmaster Day, Mike 22271 936 60 966.24 64 936.9 30.24 0.9 15.57
  Gambrell, Fishnet Dave 13111   63 940.06 63 945.33      
  Marlow, David A. 9297 917 67 905.16 71 876.65 -11.84 -40.35 -26.09
Open Women Frazer, Nicole 24355 937 61 957.52 60 971.33 20.52 34.33 27.42
  Frazer, Sandra 24354 891 68 896.43 68 902.48 5.43 11.48 8.45
  Shooner, Liz 21732 909 66 913.89 71 876.65 4.89 -32.35 -13.73
                     
                     
      914.92 68.04 896.06 68.3 899.84      

L_Stephens
Posted: Saturday, February 21, 2009 5:12:58 PM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 7/6/2008
Posts: 437
Note to Jeff Madden. I've looked at your ratings for this event. I see you played Novice. I see you went out on a terrible day for disc golf and almost burned the course down in the rain.

Two points I'd like to say: 1. Congrats on shooting a helluva two rounds. You got skills and it showed this day. 2. I've calculated your BIR...aka..your Bagger Index Rating...today..you are playing Advanced and all is good..but that day your BIR was close to ONE BILLION :)

Helluva round though.
zac
Posted: Saturday, February 21, 2009 6:13:52 PM
Rank: Regular

Joined: 6/18/2008
Posts: 63
so i see the +/- for individuals, what i would be interested in (would take alot of data to be accurate) would be this +/- applied to a division as a whole. so we would see the average +/- to expect for each individual pdga division.

...although that is an interesting set of info above, instantly showing the idividual +/- without having to calcuate it for everyone while you look at the results.
NEngle
Posted: Saturday, February 21, 2009 6:24:55 PM

Rank: Elite Veteran

Joined: 11/18/2003
Posts: 944
Location: Fairfield, OH
That's all way off (& hard to read). A TON of player ratings are missing.
L_Stephens
Posted: Sunday, February 22, 2009 7:25:41 AM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 7/6/2008
Posts: 437
A TON?...like who?...people that haven't paid their PDGA dues and I can't see their rating? I have more than enough propagators. And how would you want me to make it easier to read? Border colors?....zebra striping?...bigger print? I know message boards have people come off as hostile when that is not the intent...but how about a little more feedback.
rangel
Posted: Monday, February 23, 2009 9:16:45 AM

Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/11/2004
Posts: 136
Location: NKY
NEngle wrote:
That's all way off

I'm not so sure about that.  Two guys in the Mt. Airy tournament have ratings near 1000.

Caldwell, Pete 9903 992 54 1018.6 57 997.15 
Estenfelder, Mark 13425 1004 62 948.79 54 1022.97 

The closer their scroes are to each other, the more likely the scores will rate near 1000.  More propagators will drag this one way or the other.  62 being the odd man out score and was treated accordingly.

The compression is betwen 8 and 9.  I guess that is all right.  I don't know how that is calculated?  I BELIEVE it should be under 10, but other than that......  If the bottom scores are too highly rated, then the compression number is too small.
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