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Bagger ratings and moving up Options
L_Stephens
Posted: Thursday, February 12, 2009 3:48:19 PM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 7/6/2008
Posts: 437
People have about as many opinions of bagging as they have on politics and religion.  They can argue just as fevorently about what division they or anyone else should play as they would about why so and so is the devil incarnate or that x religion is the only true religion because of reason z.  SO...I've devised a very simple formula for telling you when you should move up based on the PDGA ratings guidelines.

The traditional PDGA way is to take all your rounds...calculate course SSA's....give your rounds a rating...then calculate your Standard Deviation...subtract out all your rounds below your Standard Deviation...aka...really really bad rounds...and then do a sort by date...and then double weighting a percentage of your newest rounds...thus saying 'recently' you shot like this.  However, due to the fact that there are reasons in your life that can have you shooting a bad round...double weighting a recent round solely on the fact that you shot that the most recent....isn't going to give you a true bearing on what kind of player you truely are.  There are people that shot a few bad rounds recently because they were sick, injured, tired, or just not having a good day...and repress their ratings to where they can now 'Bag down' and whoop up on some players below their skill level.

So, many newer players don't exactly know where to play.  They hear one side saying they should play their rating and not move up until they have to...they hear the other side say they are slaughtering their competition and should move up...so here's a simple formula for knowing when to move up.

I call it the Simpson/Stephens paradox since in essence we have been playing about the same time...we strangely shoot about the same scores....but we play different divisions and have a different outlook on what bagging truely is.

First I take all the rounds a player has been rated for in the 'window'...aka..the last 12 months if over 8 rounds have been shot.  I sort these by Rating first...not date...take the TOP 50% and throw away the bottom half....then let's double weight the top 50% of this bunch.....next...sort by DATE....Double weight the TOP 50% of these...SUM this column and divide by the number of weightings you did...and you get a TRUE rating....

CONFUSED?  Let's give an example:

Subject: Lee Stephens

  EVENT                                                                                                                                   Date         Rating          2xtop50%             2xtop50%    # of weightings
Belch'n Turkey VI 11/29/08 900 1800 3600 4  
Stillwater Open 11/08/08 891 891 1782 2  
Great Seal Scream 10/25/08 929 1858 3716 4  
Great Seal Scream 10/25/08 904 1808 3616 4  
Wright Brothers Open 09/21/08 885 885 1770 2  
Pour House Open 09/13/08 888 888 1776 2  
Pour House Open 09/13/08 877 877 1754 2  
Nicholasville Open III 09/06/08 879 879 1758 2  
The Cleveland Roc 08/31/08 886 886 1772 2  
9th Annual Cincinnati Flying Pig Open 08/24/08 966 1932 3864 4  
9th Annual Cincinnati Flying Pig Open 08/24/08 897 1794 3588 4  
9th Annual Cincinnati Flying Pig Open 08/24/08 890 890 1780 2  
Beware the Beavers! 08/09/08 890 890 1780 2  
Wildcat Hollow Open 07/26/08 896 1792 3584 4  
Wildcat Hollow Open 07/26/08 879 879 879 1  
Kentucky State Championships 07/05/08 957 1914 1914 2  
Kentucky State Championships 07/05/08 950 1900 1900 2  
Madisonville Open : 2008 AT&T Bluegrass Disc Golf Series Event 05/18/08 909 1818 1818 2  
Madisonville Open : 2008 AT&T Bluegrass Disc Golf Series Event 05/18/08 881 881 881 1  
Parklane Drive Open 05/10/08 904 1808 1808 2  
Turtle Creek Open 05/04/08 933 1866 1866 2  
NJCPR Lexington Open X 04/27/08 896 1792 1792 2  
NJCPR Lexington Open X 04/27/08 890 890 890 1  
NJCPR Lexington Open X 04/27/08 888 888 888 1  
Disc 'n Dat Bluegrass Open 04/20/08 918 1836 1836 2  
Disc 'n Dat Bluegrass Open 04/20/08 899 1798 1798 2  
Disc 'n Dat Bluegrass Open 04/20/08 877 877 877 1  
Evansville Open 03/22/08 891 891 891 1  
             
Total Rounds of Weighting         62  
True Player Rating           906.1


As you can see...I play at a level consistent with a middle of the road Intermediate player..and not a Rec player like my ratings.  Now lets take Eric Simpson.

  EVENT                                                                                                               Date         Rating          2xtop50%             2xtop50%    # of weightings
Belch'n Turkey VI 11/29/08 875 875 1750 2  
Stillwater Open 11/08/08 980 1960 3920 4  
Stillwater Open 11/08/08 879 879 1758 2  
4th Annual Pumpkin Shootout 11/02/08 934 1868 3736 4  
4th Annual Pumpkin Shootout 11/02/08 884 884 1768 2  
Great Seal Scream 10/25/08 933 1866 3732 4  
Great Seal Scream 10/25/08 881 881 1762 2  
Wright Brothers Open 09/21/08 905 1810 3620 4  
Wright Brothers Open 09/21/08 894 894 1788 2  
Wright Brothers Open 09/21/08 879 879 1758 2  
Pour House Open 09/13/08 901 1802 3604 4  
Pour House Open 09/13/08 900 1800 3600 4  
Nicholasville Open III 09/06/08 903 1806 1806 2  
Nicholasville Open III 09/06/08 894 894 894 1  
9th Annual Cincinnati Flying Pig Open 08/24/08 924 1848 1848 2  
9th Annual Cincinnati Flying Pig Open 08/24/08 919 1838 1838 2  
Beware the Beavers! 08/09/08 914 1828 1828 2  
Beware the Beavers! 08/09/08 887 887 887 1  
CSX Pro/Am Open 05/18/08 891 891 891 1  
Lobdell Open 05/03/08 889 889 889 1  
NJCPR Lexington Open X 04/27/08 900 1800 1800 2  
NJCPR Lexington Open X 04/27/08 882 882 882 1  
Disc 'n Dat Bluegrass Open 04/20/08 905 1810 1810 2  
Disc 'n Dat Bluegrass Open 04/20/08 877 877 877 1  
             
Total Rounds of Weighting         54  
True Player Rating           908.26


Eric is once again still barely higher than my rating and is playing as a middle of the road Intermediate player and well above a Rec player.

This proves that both of us belong in a division above our raiting...but not quite yet higher in Advanced.

If anyone would like me to quickly do their ratings just give me a yell...it takes about 45 seconds to do.

Comments?
L_Stephens
Posted: Thursday, February 12, 2009 4:10:46 PM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 7/6/2008
Posts: 437
Chad Harrod you would be a 949.16
Adam Jones 944.53
Abby: 885.05...not ready yet buddy...don't let Adam pressure you.
mikekem
Posted: Thursday, February 12, 2009 7:15:57 PM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 2/16/2008
Posts: 400
Location: Lebanon
do me do me
NEngle
Posted: Thursday, February 12, 2009 7:32:30 PM

Rank: Elite Veteran

Joined: 11/18/2003
Posts: 944
Location: Fairfield, OH
There's a thought I can't get out of my head... Lee "doing" mike.
Eric Simpson
Posted: Thursday, February 12, 2009 9:50:24 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/3/2007
Posts: 138
Location: Hebron,KY
You can call it a true rating but in fact it is just the Stephens rating. Most everyone will have a higher Stephens rating than their PDGA rating using this method. You're dropping the bottom half of their rounds. You can't assume someone is only as good as their best rounds. As much as everyone thinks they should shoot their best round everytime, it doesn't work that way. Using your formula, you would have to come up with new division breaks after seeing the total sample. You can't use a different formula than the PDGA to come up with a number then apply it to the PDGA division breaks. Also, the Stephens/Simpson paradox would be solved if everyone would play in their rating's division. It seems most intermediate fields have rec players and most advanced fields have intermediate players.

Egads man, I said I'd play Intermediate this year anyway. If that one point is bugging you that bad, just wait until next update, you're due to jump ahead. Believe me, I didn't intentionally ditch any round so I can stay down here. You know how mad I get with myself when I shoot poorly, I'm not doing it intentionally just so I can win more Polecats.
ADM2008
Posted: Thursday, February 12, 2009 11:15:54 PM

Rank: Tree Hukker

Joined: 4/8/2008
Posts: 28
Location: Loveland, OH
So if I start playing in PDGA tournaments what should I play....intermediate? Eric's a way better player than I am so should I play rec? What about CCS? Bottom line is I want to get better....when I wanted to get better at basketball I would play against the best..does that some logic of thinking work in disc golf? Please help...I'm lost in all of Lee's calculations....thanks-the other drew miller
L_Stephens
Posted: Friday, February 13, 2009 7:42:30 AM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 7/6/2008
Posts: 437
Mike: 929.40

And yes...this is a 'bagger rating'...not to ever replace a PDGA rating. It tells you at what level you can play at on a relatively good day. Most people want to argue that it doesn't take into account those bad rounds. Let's see...do you really think you ability in this sport should be judged on the days you didn't sleep at all before the tournament....you were hung-over....you were hurt...you mentally blew up....your girlfriend cheated on you and you showed up to the tournament a total wreck? No...if you want to accept that as your rating then you have issues with your confidence going into a tournament. This is what you should reasonably expect to shoot.

On the flip side....it shows me instantly that even on a good day...I really have no business playing Advanced...unless....like I'm currently doing in Open Masters...I'm there to learn from much better players with no expectations of a pay out.

So....when someone blows away the field...I'll pull out my phone...grab their PDGA ratings detail page....do some quick calculations and figure out there 'Lee Rating'....and if it shows that my figures say they are a bagger..I will BOOOOOOOOO...MOVE UP YOU BAGGER!!! If they simply shot the round of their life and their 'Lee Rating' is within their division...I'll shake their hand and tell them what a great round they had.

Also..I just finished watching "Taken"...I really liked it...I was a huge fan of "Ransom" with Mel Gibson as well.
mikekem
Posted: Friday, February 13, 2009 8:01:40 AM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 2/16/2008
Posts: 400
Location: Lebanon
ADM2008 wrote:
So if I start playing in PDGA tournaments what should I play....intermediate? Eric's a way better player than I am so should I play rec? What about CCS? Bottom line is I want to get better....when I wanted to get better at basketball I would play against the best..does that some logic of thinking work in disc golf? Please help...I'm lost in all of Lee's calculations....thanks-the other drew miller


If you're not accustomed to playing in tournaments you should play in lower divisions for at least your first tournament.  If you win that easily then move up until you find your competition. 
mikekem
Posted: Friday, February 13, 2009 8:03:05 AM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 2/16/2008
Posts: 400
Location: Lebanon
NEngle wrote:
There's a thought I can't get out of my head... Lee "doing" mike.


Don't be jealous Nick, he can do you next.
L_Stephens
Posted: Friday, February 13, 2009 8:08:18 AM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 7/6/2008
Posts: 437
Remind me not to share a room with either of you two at Bowling Green.
Eric Simpson
Posted: Friday, February 13, 2009 8:32:07 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/3/2007
Posts: 138
Location: Hebron,KY
ADM2008 wrote:
So if I start playing in PDGA tournaments what should I play....intermediate? Eric's a way better player than I am so should I play rec? What about CCS? Bottom line is I want to get better....when I wanted to get better at basketball I would play against the best..does that some logic of thinking work in disc golf? Please help...I'm lost in all of Lee's calculations....thanks-the other drew miller


As you could guess, my vote would be to start in rec.  Some people have a problem with playing in the rec division.  I think it is from when the division cutoffs were different and the name of the division itself.  I found plenty of competition in that division and learned from people playing in it.  Not everyone at that level has the same tools, so I always played with someone that had a better forehand (who doesn't?) or was a better putter or could drive farther.  If you feel like you are too much for the division, move up the next time if you choose.  I chose to stay where my rating said I belong since I was going to courses I had never been to.  When I shot like **** at a couple of those courses and still won or top 3 is when I made up my mind to move up for this year.  I don't agree with winning one then moving up.  If you get on fire one time, then move up and get your butt kicked repeatedly, I'm not sure what you are learning.  Lee can answer that one.

People hop back and forth in the CCS.  Some players in advanced should be in novice and vice versa.  It isn't a big deal since CCS is alot more relaxed.
nienaber
Posted: Friday, February 13, 2009 8:41:31 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 248
Location: Hamilton
I agree, I started in Intermediate my first few tournaments and realized that I should be playing rec. But, what is more important is the people you are playing with. I had a blast playing with the rec division last year becausae I was new to the tournaments and the rules and they were all real laid back and helpful.

When I wanted to get better in basketball I spent hours in the gym and I think even more in disc golf then basketball practicing alone in a field will get you better then the competition. Basically the only competition is yourself, no defense nobody trying to stop you from putting the disc in the chains (except God and his silly wind)

kmaupin
Posted: Friday, February 13, 2009 9:40:42 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/5/2004
Posts: 163
Location: Fairfield Township
I agree that bagger ratings is Lee's system. =) You play what you play and the current PDGA formula seems to make sense to me. Weigh the more recent rounds heavier so the thought "you are better now than you were nine months ago right?" is emphasized. If you are inconsistent and shoot 850 rounds just about as often as 910 rounds then you are not a 910 player as much as your ego wants to tell you. :)

I am new to tournament play and I am definitely inconsistent. I think it is funny that Intermediate starts at 900 and advanced starts at 930, if you're a novice till 850 and recreational between 850 and 900. I just don't understand the small range for intermediate.

I actually played two events in the Novice division last year and I don't regret it at all. One I averaged above 850 which makes since when my rating was ~830 at the time so I can have rounds that are better but I also averaged an 840 at the other event, one round above 850 and one at around 818(was a tough round).

I know there are conversations about the need to reduce divisions but honestly, I salute Lyle McCoon for offering all the divisions.(meeting the minimum 4 player restriction of course) I REALLY feel it does help people get into disc golf competetivly without having to play in a division with someone with an 890 rating which is a huge difference, if they are an 820 rated player.

I do like playing in Course Challenge series with a mixed group for the first round as you do get a chance to see better players or possibly help newer players with their game.

Just my $.02


rangel
Posted: Friday, February 13, 2009 3:59:44 PM

Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/11/2004
Posts: 136
Location: NKY
kmaupin wrote:
I just don't understand the small range for intermediate.

I don't know the official explanation.  But the 900 to 930 range should be the middle of the bell curve.  My guess is the PDGA did their homework.  Here it's statistics.  And found the biggest slice of golfers nationwide fit in this 30 point  slice.  This will change in the future when they do their homework again and find that the biggest slice is moving or spreading out or whatever.

If you're trying to promote play across all divisions (however many that turns out to be), then your divisions need to slice the pie into equal sections.  As much as possible.

kmaupin wrote:
I salute Lyle McCoon for offering all the divisions.
Look back to his Ctier Ice Bowl. 
17 - Open  (All Open)
15 - Advanced  (All Advanced)
23 - Intermediate
15 - Rec
16 - Novice
I believe that is the kind of attendance parity the PDGA wants.
matthew_blakely
Posted: Friday, February 13, 2009 5:39:04 PM
Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 2/27/2003
Posts: 491
Whats mine than Lee? It's not like I will be changing divisions or anything!
perica
Posted: Friday, February 13, 2009 9:32:24 PM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2005
Posts: 370
Location: Where it puts the lotion on its skin
maybe next we can develop a d-bag index as well
L_Stephens
Posted: Saturday, February 14, 2009 7:28:10 AM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 7/6/2008
Posts: 437
Matt...You can't bag if you are playing Open...so you don't need a Bagger Index Number.

Mark: I can't quite mathematically quantify a D-Bag Index.....It would have to be a social input...aka...a poll....or how about I start up www.d-bag-or-not.com and put all our pics on there and let everyone vote?
nienaber
Posted: Saturday, February 14, 2009 10:39:40 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 248
Location: Hamilton
I like what Lyle McCoon does at his tournaments. He gives the person who played a lower division that would of done best in a division higher (or something like that) a bag of sand.

So Lee my ranking is similar to you and Eric I am interested in where I fall in your bagger ratings.
L_Stephens
Posted: Saturday, February 14, 2009 3:31:17 PM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 7/6/2008
Posts: 437
Matt Nienaber...your Bagger Index Rating (BIR)is 907.43....so..If I see you blowing out Rec again...or playing Novice in the CCS...I'm screaming BAGGER!!! heh
mikekem
Posted: Saturday, February 14, 2009 4:53:38 PM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 2/16/2008
Posts: 400
Location: Lebanon
I looked into my rating Lee. I have had 4 rounds over 929 out of my last 26 or so rounds. I probably had more 880 or 890 rounds than 4. I'm not sure I agree with your rating system.

L_Stephens
Posted: Saturday, February 14, 2009 5:16:43 PM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 7/6/2008
Posts: 437
Mike...you haven't shot below 900 since July. I think that 961 rated round at Worlds...which was not even close to being on your home course...or that 966 at BG Ams was a major factor into your elevated BIR score. Remember..this isn't an average...It's a measure of skill set.

Ok..change gears...if you think a Baseball Batting Average is a measure of your true skill set...then the discussion is over because you have no idea what I'm trying to convey here. If you think a Baseball Pitchers Winning Percentage is a measure of his skill set...then this discussion is over.

The BIR is saying you have the skills necessary to play in a certain division that is most likely elevated from the one you are 'rated' to play in. Some...ie...most....people will cling to this number as a crutch to play in a lower division because in modern times...winning today is more important than success tomorrow. Playing video games on easy is to some more fun than a challenge of playing on more difficult settings...because winning makes people feel all warm and fuzzy on the inside.

Two years ago I was at the Poor House Open in Upper Sandusky, OH. I was a bottom tier Rec player...only been playing a few months. All the Michigan players came down and the Rec field was packed. These guys were throwing 400 feet plus...hitting 60 foot jump putts...killing everything within 30 feet. I had the rounds of my...up until then...life. I managed to cash...but I was so distraught by how my skill set at that level was so far below theirs that I almost quit the sport. I had to rely on their faltering at the end and losing..and not my strong play...to actually cash. This was when I was introduced to the subject of Bagging...these guys were 1 point away from being forced to move to Intermediate..but would not...unless you held a gun to their heads....move up. However, they played their ratings...and they crushed the field...they went home with their plastic..and I'm sure they went home feeling all warm and fuzzy at having beat the game with the Easy Level settings.

mikekem
Posted: Saturday, February 14, 2009 6:48:33 PM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 2/16/2008
Posts: 400
Location: Lebanon
I don't really feel competitive with 930 players. I may have have a good round rating on a windy day when others struggle like me with putts but I would say even my current average is closer to 915.

Also, on a somewhat related side note.  If you want to bolster your rating you should go to worlds.  So many people go there and half of them are forced to move up to advance.  This helps push your round ratings up compared to those in your division.
alexh
Posted: Saturday, February 14, 2009 6:59:58 PM

Rank: Regular

Joined: 12/22/2006
Posts: 73
Location: Lebanon, OH
What about me Lee??? :) I am going to be bagging playing Intermediate in PDGA this year since I still have a few points before they force me to move up...
zac
Posted: Saturday, February 14, 2009 7:27:31 PM
Rank: Regular

Joined: 6/18/2008
Posts: 63
this, just like the pdga system, creates a much more accurate rating for those higher up who are already consistent. for those who are struggling with consistency, most ams, and moreover the lower am divisions... this only inflates the rating to a number that represents what they would be shooting if they always shot well. and if they always shot well, yes they would play up a division. there are tons and tons of ams that could compete with the pros if they were only more consistent. they are not, so half the rounds are good, and half are bad ( in most of our opinions). if you simply take out the bad, then weight according to date, you represent how we WISH we were rated. yea i wish i was 980, but im not a 980 player because i lack the consistency of a 980 player. now if you want to call this rating system an 'average potential' or something of the sort, then i could agree that my potential is to average around 980, but we all know that i am not invincible to <930 rated rounds and worse. perhaps it is a good guideline to know when you can compete with the people in the division higher than you, but as is common sense and observation. i know when and where i can can compete with who. there is never going to be an accurate ratings system unless ratings are updated every event, but there are justifications as to why they arent and shouldnt be as well. i dont think its a problem with the ratings system or a problem with people 'bagging' simply different motivations and different mindsets when it comes to disc golf. i think this an interesting attempt at fixing the system, but i dont ever think the rating system will work the way everyone wants it to.
Otterbein_discgolf
Posted: Monday, February 16, 2009 4:50:11 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/1/2007
Posts: 169
Worlds was great for the ratings for sure. I shot 960+ rounds on 4 of the 7 rounds I think. I played my first round at Kimball Pines and walked off there ready to quit from poor play... it ended up being 931. I thought it would be a sub 850 round for sure. I played the last round left handed just for fun since I was so pi$$ed off after the first hole and it was almost 900. So Lee... just for giggles, whats myh BIR? And this is Craig in case you didn't know :)
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