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PDGA Ratings Update Predictions Options
L_Stephens
Posted: Thursday, February 26, 2009 12:31:50 AM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 7/6/2008
Posts: 437
Since Eric Simpson (878) and I (877) are so closely rated...I did a ratings predictor calculation for us to see where we would most like stand after the upcoming ratings update.  If you would like to do this yourself...since you have to enter in all the events you shot..and round scores.... just Google ratings_predictor.xls and just type the stuff in yourself.  Eric and I played almost all the same events...so it was just a matter of changing the per event ratings....pretty easy after I type everything in for myself to start with.

I show Eric at

Projected Rating : 879
Average: 875
Standard Deviation 36.09
SD multiplier 2.5
SD Range: 90.22
Lower Boundry: 784

That's 48 rounds with 12 of them double weighted.

I show little ole me at:

Projected Rating: 879
Average: 880
Standard Deviation: 33.31
SD Multiplier: 2.5
SD Range: 83.28
Lower Boundry 797

That's 51 rounds with 13 of them double weighted.

A few things you will notice.  My average round rating is higher than Erics....but he is rated the same.  My average round is one point higher than my average...HOW CAN THAT BE?  Double weighting...Eric has much higher rounds in his recent rounds...these are double weighted...one was a 980 round.  I have a lower rating than average because I had the misfortune of shooting horrible at two tournaments...and they are double weighted...yea...double weight my 847 and 837 rounds at The Pumpkin Shootout.. OUCH!!!

I'll just cling to: "I'm a more consistant golfer than you Eric...My Standard Deviation is lower than yours!!!!"  Hell...that's the great thing about stats..you can always find something you are better at someone else at...you just might have to get all geeky to find that one thing though.

For those that don't understand Standard Deviation...it just comes down to how wide spread your ratings are from event to event.  My SD range is 83.28... that's basically taking my SD...of 33.31...meaning I usually shoot somewhere within 33.31 ratings points of my average...well in simplistic terms..but anyway...take my SD..multiply it by 2.5..and the 83.28 is my range...now if I have some super crappy rounds that are less than 83.28 points of my average..they get dropped and don't get calculated into their ratings.  Eric shot a 794 rated round early last year when he was still new to tournaments...if he would have been a little more consistent this year...that round would be dropped from his overall ratings calculation...thus..he'd be rated like 879.2 or something. ..actually...it would have been an 881...DOH!  One crappy round can screw ya.
Eric Simpson
Posted: Thursday, February 26, 2009 7:58:56 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/3/2007
Posts: 138
Location: Hebron,KY
Get a life, Lee.  I've maintained consistency is my problem.  I told you I didn't appreciate the comparison in the bagger index thread,  so now you start this thread.  Is the one point bugging you that bad, really?  I don't understand your obsession for this constant comparison.  I've killed you at some tournaments and you've killed me at others.  Some tournaments we are the same.  Who gives a flying ****?  I'm not in competition with you, I'm in competition with myself.  I'm trying to enjoy the game and get better at it.
13ruce-1337
Posted: Thursday, February 26, 2009 12:30:55 PM

Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/16/2008
Posts: 199
Oh eric .. take it as a compliment that he uses you as an example .. he would use me .. but that would just discourage him
13ruce-1337
Posted: Thursday, February 26, 2009 12:31:28 PM

Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/16/2008
Posts: 199
Lee .. find someone around my rating and do the same comparisons.
Ben Shooner
Posted: Thursday, February 26, 2009 12:50:05 PM

Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/16/2003
Posts: 248
Eric Simpson wrote:
I'm not in competition with you, I'm in competition with myself. 


Amen to that. Competition and comparison can be fun-but it's pointless to get bogged down in it. You KNOW when you're playing well, when you're playing bad, and when you're just treading water. As you mentioned Eric, the formula for success is simple: 1)Have fun, 2)Get better. These two feed off of each other. Not worrying about other players' games helps too.
13ruce-1337
Posted: Thursday, February 26, 2009 1:02:47 PM

Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/16/2008
Posts: 199
And we have a winner .. do me and shooner .. we are pretty tight on the scale
Ben Shooner
Posted: Thursday, February 26, 2009 1:54:24 PM

Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/16/2003
Posts: 248
I don't know if I'd like Lee to 'do' me at all...much less if you were in any way involved Chad. No offense-I just don't dig you guys like that.
L_Stephens
Posted: Thursday, February 26, 2009 2:09:26 PM

Rank: Extreme Veteran

Joined: 7/6/2008
Posts: 437
I'd rather not do you as well...heh...but I do have a life...and chad you can google the excel file yourself...I'll be working the next three days pretty hard and have no time...except...work...eat...sleep...repeat. I'm looking at some 16 hour days :( /me goes back to sleep.
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